Although Donald Trump established a new level of mendacity in Thursday night’s debate, it was impossible to watch President Biden without cringing. Everything from his hesitant walk onstage to his fumbling with the lectern and hoarse voice gave him away as a man way past his prime. So far the New York Times editorial board along with columnists Tom Friedman, Paul Krugman and others have called for Biden to step down and major Democratic donors have said they’re not going to make future contributions to Biden. Meanwhile, Trump is raising money furiously. What to do?
First, I’ll say that while Trump brags that he “aced” cognitive exams, it seems obvious that both men actually are cognitively challenged. Each fails in the area of prosody, which in psychological terms has nothing to do with poetry, but refers rather to a person’s access to specific and varied language. It’s not the same as dementia but they’re in the same neighborhood. Biden couldn’t even finish sentences on Thursday and despite his bombast, Trump’s notorious for being unable to stay on subject.
The opinions of editorial writers and donors aside, Biden shows no inclination to suspend his campaign and others have said it’s too late to do anything else. Oddly, so far I’ve seen no one talk about a brokered or contested election, something that has been common in American political history. For example, the Republicans went through thirty-six ballots at their convention before choosing James Garfield in 1880 and in 1924, the Democrats took sixteen days and 103 ballots to nominate John Davis. More recently, Adlai Stevenson was nominated only after three ballots in 1952 and in 1976 the GOP convention opened as contested until Gerald Ford beat Ronald Reagan on the first ballot. Otherwise FDR went through four ballots in 1932 and Woodrow Wilson was nominated after forty-six.
Altogether there have been fifteen multi-ballot conventions in history but only six resulted in a nominee who could win the general election. Then there was the 1968 which was contested when Lyndon Johnson decided not to run for re-election. That convention was noteworthy for the protests of Weathermen, the riot of Chicago police against the protesters, and eventually resulted in Hubert Humphrey triumphing over Gene McCarthy. Robert Kennedy might well have been the nominee had he not been assassinated while campaigning in California. Of course in those days there were fewer primaries and candidates spent a lot of time wooing delegates in states that did not have primaries. Sometimes governors or senators would run as favorite suns, waiting until the convention to tip their hands as to who they were voting for.
So while historically a brokered or challenged election would be nothing new, it seems unlikely that Democrats would challenge Biden if he were to decide not to run for re-election. I’m not alone, however, in hoping that he does since we have a number of able candidates standing in the wings, including Gavin Newsome, the governor of California, and my personal favorite, Gretchen Whitmer, governor of Michigan. If Biden were to pass on a second term, the convention would be open for a battle between those two and probably Vice-President Kamala Harris, who is very unpopular, according to recent polls.
Unless Biden’s staff and family can convince him to step back after a great career in public service, this probably won’t happen. Nevertheless, I can’t understand people who feel there’s no alternative and we have to sink or swim with Joe. There’s plenty of time until November and a contested convention would likely increase interest in whoever the Democrats nominate and give the large number of “haters” of both candidates an acceptable place to go. To put it bluntly, it may be the Democrats only chance in 2024.
I fear that the the Democratic Party—by panicking over the debate and being too eager to throw Biden under the bus—is shooting itself in the foot. It’s a Big Tent Party, which is good. But getting all those strong and diverse voices to come to consensus at the Convention seems unlikely. I say stick with Biden unless he chooses to bow out. He has shown himself willing to surround himself with highly competent staff and advisors and to listen and delegate as needed. We are electing a President, not a champion debater. This would not be “circling the wagons.” It would be presenting a unified platform capable of surrounding and defeating the Republican loyalists and sycophants who encircle and empower Trump.